How Can We Identify Bitcoin’s Absolute Top?
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Hey folks, curious if anyone has a reliable way to spot Bitcoin’s absolute top.
I know nobody can time perfection, but are there on‑chain metrics, technical signals or sentiment extremes that have nailed past peaks?
- Do you watch NVT or MVRV ratios hitting certain levels?
- Is there a “max FOMO” indicator like social media mentions or Google Trends?
- Any chart patterns (parabolic curves, blow‑off tops) you swear by?
- How do you manage risk if you think you’re at the final top?
Would love your insights, examples or gut feels...
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Looking at history, Bitcoin’s tops often coincide with MVRV Z‑Score above 7, OR NVT above 200.
- MVRV Z‑Score tracks profit/loss realization, extreme greed shows up as highs above 7
- NVT Ratio spikes when network value outpaces transaction volume, signaling overvaluation
Last peak in Nov ’21 saw MVRV ~8, NVT >220 and Google Trends “Bitcoin crash” searches soared. When I see those align, I tighten stops and take profits.
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@Cryptofreakz said in How Can We Identify Bitcoin’s Absolute Top?:
indicator
This could help: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/
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I focus on price action and patterns on the monthly chart.
- A long parabolic curve that looks like a hockey stick is a red flag
- When volume dries up on new highs, that’s a classic blow‑off top signal
- I draw a rising wedge into the final rally; a break below the lower trendline triggered my exit last cycle
Chart example: BTC parabolic in Nov ’21, volume divergence, wedge breakdown—worked like a charm!
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@Cryptofreakz said in How Can We Identify Bitcoin’s Absolute Top?:
technical signals
I love a simple candle‑close rule on the weekly:
- When BTC closes above the upper Bollinger Band for 3 weeks in a row, I consider that a “last hurrah”
- On the 4th week, I shrink my size drastically, I might even flip short briefly
In 2017 and 2021 that triple‑band close nailed the peaks almost exactly, so I trust it more than gut feels.
