CPI’s Out Today. How Does Crypto Usually React?
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Hey all, CPI numbers drop later today and I’m curious…
I’ve seen stocks bounce or dump hard on surprises, but what about crypto? Last time CPI came in hot, BTC spiked then dumped—does that ring true?
And altcoins—do they just follow Bitcoin, or do some sectors (DeFi tokens, NFTs, memecoins) really overreact?
- Do you pre-emptively scale out before the report or wait for the candle to close?
- Any go‑to risk tricks (like reducing leverage or hedging)?
- Would love to hear your past experiences, charts, or gut feels on CPI days!
Thanks in advance—need all the wisdom I can get!
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LOL, altcoins go wild on CPI days! Last time I watched my favorite memecoin jump 20% in 10 minutes then crash 25% right after.
My strategy is:
- Take a quick profit if it’s +10% within the first hour
- Lock in at least half my gains and for the rest I set a tight stop of 5%
Works best on tokens with small market caps where speed beats holding through the noise.
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On‑chain signals help me decide whether to lean into the move or stay sidelined. I track:
- Exchange netflows: big outflows before CPI often signal accumulation, so bias long
- Realized volatility spikes: if RV(30d) jumps >10% in 24h, I expect continuation of volatility
- Stablecoin supply changes: an uptick in USDC minting can precede buying pressure
Combining those with price action gives me a clearer picture, instead of relying on gut alone!!
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@Cryptofreakz said in CPI’s Out Today. How Does Crypto Usually React?:
do they just follow Bitcoin
I don’t fight the candle. I wait for the closing price of the 1H bar after the release.
- If that close is above yesterday’s high, I look for a long entry on the next pullback
- If it closes below the low, I stay out or flip short, depending on my bias
On June 12 CPI I saw a bull candle close 2% higher at 2pm UTC, then price retraced 0.8% into the EMA50 on 15m. That was my signal to go long. Simple, avoids chasing wicks. ^^
